Global headline inflation is projected to rise notably to 4.7% in 2026

World trade volume growth is projected to slow in 2026 and stabilize in 2027, reflecting the drag from tariffs, adjustment in production chains, and continued strength in technology-related trade. Global imbalances are expected to decline only modestly over the medium term, as large fiscal deficits, limited domestic rebalancing, technology-driven capital flows, and differing demand compositions across major economies under current policies continue to sustain external gaps.