{"id":7301,"date":"2026-10-07T08:01:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T08:01:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=7301"},"modified":"2026-10-07T08:01:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T08:01:48","slug":"has-russias-fuel-crisis-given-iranian-oil-an-opening-in-central-asia-us-israel-war-on-iran-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=7301","title":{"rendered":"Has Russia\u2019s fuel crisis given Iranian oil an opening in Central Asia? | US-Israel war on Iran News"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Countries in Central Asia have begun buying oil from Iran as the Russian fuel supplies they have long depended on run dry amid Ukraine\u2019s mounting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to degrade Moscow\u2019s war effort.<\/p>\n

In August, Tajikistan announced it was receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran as Dushanbe faces uncertainty over its fuel supply from Russia. Tehran also agreed to establish a joint refinery in Kyrgyzstan in August, and supply the country with crude oil.<\/p>\n

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Moscow has been facing fuel shortages due to Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries as Russia\u2019s war on its neighbour continues to rage.<\/p>\n

Can the Russian fuel crisis give Iran a new oil opening in Central Asia?<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we know:<\/p>\n

Which Central Asian countries have been affected by Russia\u2019s fuel crisis?<\/h2>\n

Ukraine\u2019s offensive against Russian energy infrastructure has caused panic across Central Asian countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are dependent on Moscow for oil and petroleum products.<\/p>\n

Tajikistan has traditionally sourced up to 80 percent of its petroleum products from Russia. Kyrgyzstan also relies on petroleum product imports, sourcing more than 90 percent of its petrol from Russia.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve been hurt the most,\u201d Galiya Ibragimova, a Moldova-based expert on Central Asia with Carnegie Politika, which has its headquarters in Berlin, told Al Jazeera<\/a> in an interview in August.<\/p>\n

Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, the free trade bloc of five former Soviet nations dominated by Russia and the Kremlin\u2019s political decisions.<\/p>\n

Tajikistan is not a member of the group, but it bought discounted Russian fuel as \u201cpayment for political loyalty, not because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is so kind\u201d, Ibragimova added.<\/p>\n

Kazakhstan, meanwhile, boasts three giant, Soviet-era oil refineries. Still, fuel prices in the country have increased by 15.6 percent this year, the UlusMedia website reported on July 10.<\/p>\n

Uzbekistan, on the other hand, is less dependent on Russian energy, with domestic production capable of reaching 100,000 tonnes of petroleum products per month, satisfying most of the country\u2019s needs. But due to the increase in oil demand from its regional neighbours, Uzbekistan has also been forced to diversify its imports and has begun striking deals with countries like Georgia and Iraq.<\/p>\n

Why is there a fuel crisis in Russia?<\/h2>\n

Russia has been facing a severe fuel deficit<\/a> as Kyiv\u2019s drone strikes \u2013 launched in an effort to degrade Moscow\u2019s ability to maintain its ongoing invasion of Ukraine \u2013 have knocked out an estimated quarter to half of its total oil refining capacity.<\/p>\n

To tackle the problem, Russia has imposed fuel rationing. Sales are often limited to about 20-30 litres (about 5-8 US gallons) per vehicle, and drivers must pump fuel strictly into vehicle tanks. Filling jerry cans is largely prohibited.<\/p>\n

Earlier, the government banned petrol and jet fuel exports. Officials are now weighing a ban on diesel exports, too. Authorities have loosened fuel-quality regulations, temporarily allowing lower-grade fuel for the domestic market.<\/p>\n

A state of emergency has also been declared in Russian-occupied Crimea<\/a>, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. A Russian-owned oil firm in India, Nayara Energy, has reportedly sold<\/a> petroleum to Russia.<\/p>\n

While Russian President Putin acknowledges the crisis, he appears reluctant to end the war on Ukraine and insists the situation is under control.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese attacks on our facilities certainly create problems \u2013 that is obvious. We are currently seeing a certain shortage, though I would say it is not critical,\u201d he said earlier this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cFirst and foremost, we have to rapidly and significantly increase production of air defence systems that are most in demand. We must also continue to improve them\u2026 Repairs at refineries must be completed more quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, how is Iran helping Central Asia?<\/h2>\n

Amid Russian fuel shortages, Central Asian countries like Tajikistan have begun striking deals with Iran.<\/p>\n

In August, Tajikistan\u2019s Energy and Water Resources Ministry told the Asia-Plus news agency that the country is receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran. The ministry has not disclosed the route used to transport the products, but Tajikistan expects to receive 2.55 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products from Iran.<\/p>\n

Besides Tajikistan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian welcomed a proposal from Kyrgyzstan in August to establish a joint refinery in the Central Asian country, according to a report<\/a> by Iran\u2019s Tasnim news agency,<\/p>\n

Under the agreement, Pezeshkian said, \u201cThe crude oil needed by the refinery can be supplied by Iran, and the products can be divided between the two sides.\u201d<\/p>\n

Will exporting oil to Central Asian countries help Iran?<\/h2>\n

The United States and Israel\u2019s war on Iran has affected Tehran\u2019s oil revenues. Data released by the government-administered Statistical Center of Iran in September showed that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year between March 21 and June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar.<\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s ability to sell crude has also been dramatically curtailed by the US naval blockade of Iran\u2019s ports, imposed for most of the war, which began in late February.<\/p>\n

Iranian crude and condensate loadings collapsed from about two million barrels per day (bpd) in March to roughly 740,000bpd in July and just 220,000-255,000bpd in August, according to estimates from Kpler and Vortexa.<\/p>\n

TankerTrackers.com told the Reuters news agency in September that 29 tankers, carrying 36.11 million barrels of crude, were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Vortexa estimated that total Iranian crude afloat had fallen from 135 million barrels at the end of July to 107 million barrels by late August.<\/p>\n

Amid these challenges, Iran has been scrambling to find new countries to trade oil with. Russian fuel shortages have opened up new opportunities for Iran in Central Asia, at least in the short term, according to analysts.<\/p>\n

How does Iranian oil reach Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan?<\/h2>\n

Iran does not share a border with either country.<\/p>\n

To get to Tajikistan, Iranian \u201coil and refined products have to cross Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan by rail\u201d, said Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.<\/p>\n

To get to Kyrgyzstan, Iranian oil would also need to pass through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n

Is trading oil with Iran logistically sustainable for Central Asia?<\/h2>\n

It is unlikely, Schneider said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis opportunity [for Iran] depends on Ukraine continuing to hit Russian refineries, which seems unlikely, both given the waning of Ukraine\u2019s strike capability and the US government\u2019s demand to stop the attacks as they put too much strain on global oil markets,\u201d he told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

He noted that US President Donald Trump has pressed his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, repeatedly in September for an \u201cenergy truce\u201d with Russia, since diesel prices have become a political problem for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose truces have so far collapsed within hours, but the direction is clear. Once the strikes stop, or once Russia repairs its plants, Russian fuel will come back to Central Asia duty-free under Eurasian Economic Union arrangements, and Iran will struggle to compete on price,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Logistics also favour Russia with respect to importing oil to countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, he said.<\/p>\n

Unlike Iran, Russia shares a border with both.<\/p>\n

\u201cTajikistan\u2019s own request [for oil] would need around 51,000 rail tank cars, and its main refinery at Dangara has never operated commercially at scale. Russia, by contrast, has decades\u2019 worth of logistics infrastructure, pipelines, rail links, and supply contracts into the region,\u201d Schneider said.<\/p>\n

Is Central Asia a big enough market to compensate for Iran\u2019s Hormuz losses?<\/h2>\n

No, according to Schneider.<\/p>\n

Tajikistan\u2019s total demand, Schneider said, was about 50,000bpd.<\/p>\n

That is a drop in the ocean compared with the 1.7 million bpd Iran exported by sea a year ago. China reported $9.96bn in two-way trade<\/a> with Iran in 2025, a figure that does not include some $31.2bn in Iranian oil shipments, according to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis suggests that Central Asia can be a useful outlet for Iranian diesel and gasoline, but it cannot replace the Chinese market,\u201d Schneider said.<\/p>\n

For Tehran, Central Asia\u2019s importance depends on how the US-Israel war on Iran develops, he said, adding that\u00a0Tehran also needs to stay on good terms with Russia, with which it has a deep strategic partnership.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran cannot afford to be seen as poaching Russian customers too aggressively, so it will present itself as a stopgap supplier, which, again, limits how much it can earn there,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

What other risks does Central Asia face in buying Iranian oil?<\/h2>\n

Schneider warned that Central Asian nations could be hit with Washington\u2019s secondary sanctions on Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cLegally, US secondary sanctions apply to any foreign company or bank that conducts a significant transaction in Iranian petroleum, wherever it is based, and the Treasury expanded the list of sanctionable conduct in August. A Treasury official has already warned publicly that anyone in this trade \u2018incurs that risk themselves\u2019,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

But Schneider said that, politically, the US sanctioning Central Asian governments is unlikely.<\/p>\n

\u201cCentral Asia is the arena of a new \u2018Great Game\u2019 between Russia, China and the United States, and Washington is courting the region harder than at any point since the 1990s, chiefly for its critical minerals. Kazakhstan alone holds about half of the minerals the US classifies as critical, including uranium and tungsten,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSanctioning a Central Asian government for buying fuel from Iran would push them straight back into closer ties to Russia and China,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat I would expect instead are targeted designations of individual traders, rail and logistics operators and smaller banks, combined with quiet pressure on the region\u2019s correspondent banks. That alone is enough to raise the cost and slow the trade, but will come at the price of these countries redoubling their efforts to decouple economically and financially from the US.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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Countries in Central Asia have begun buying oil from Iran as the Russian fuel supplies they have long depended on run dry amid Ukraine\u2019s mounting attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to degrade Moscow\u2019s war effort. In August, Tajikistan announced it was receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran as Dushanbe faces uncertainty over its fuel…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7302,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_2277560469115098_106292521332774":"","twitter_aToxNzczMzI3Njk4OTg4ODUxMjAxOw==_1773327698988851200":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_templately_pack_id":"","_templately_imported_at":"","_templately_source":"","_templately_import_session_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-international-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t