{"id":6106,"date":"2026-09-29T14:29:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T14:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=6106"},"modified":"2026-09-29T14:29:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T14:29:25","slug":"bail-for-raf-base-suspects-suggests-no-evidence-of-terror-say-analysts-us-israel-war-on-iran-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=6106","title":{"rendered":"Bail for RAF base suspects suggests no evidence of \u2018terror\u2019, say analysts | US-Israel war on Iran News"},"content":{"rendered":"
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When a woman driving home to her Gloucestershire village in England in the early hours of Sunday morning found her driveway blocked by three white vans, she immediately called the police.<\/p>\n

The call triggered a whirlwind of dramatic events; within 15 minutes, armed officers had swooped on the scene, and a major incident was declared at the nearby Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford, a base United States bombers have used to strike Iran.<\/p>\n

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Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n

list of 4 items<\/span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n

Some 85 homes were evacuated as a bomb disposal robot picked its way between the vans, and five British men in their 20s were arrested on suspicion of explosives and terrorism offences.<\/p>\n

As army explosives experts examined the vehicles and counterterrorism detectives began questioning the suspects, US President Donald Trump, some 5,800km (3,600 miles) away, was already hailing the arrests.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe had them under view for a long time, and we got them,\u201d he told reporters on Sunday.<\/p>\n

But Westminster was more cautious, with United Kingdom Prime Minister Andy Burnham urging people \u201cnot to speculate\u201d.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s embassy in London said it \u201ccategorically rejects\u201d any link, adding that such speculation would only \u201cfuel Iranophobia propaganda in the UK\u201d.<\/p>\n

Then on Monday, all five men were released on bail, leaving Trump \u201csurprised\u201d. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio went further, saying the incident \u201cclearly involves the hands of a foreign actor\u201d. He did not name one, though he noted that Iran had \u201copenly threatened to attack American interests globally\u201d.<\/p>\n

The swift succession of arrests, claims and subsequent release has left a confused picture, raising questions about whether British authorities were indeed tracking the suspects \u2013 as Trump claimed \u2013 and whether the case is thinner than Washington suggests, say analysts.<\/p>\n

But many analysts Al Jazeera spoke to said that the manner in which the suspects were released suggests that the UK government had little evidence, at least at this point, that the men were plotting a major attack.<\/p>\n

From \u2018World War III\u2019 to \u2018Four Lions\u2019<\/h2>\n

Analysts said there were few signs of a sophisticated plot.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there had been any trace of explosives found in the vans, or any thoughts that these men were actually terrorists, they would not have been released,\u201d Chris Phillips, a former head of the UK\u2019s National Counter Terrorism Security Office, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s gone from World War III to Four Lions in four hours,\u201d he said, referring to the 2010 British satire about a group of bumbling would-be suicide bombers.<\/p>\n

Under the Terrorism Act 2000, police can hold terrorism suspects for up to 14 days without charge, he said, adding that officers who believed they had caught genuine attackers would use that time.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou keep them, and you go through all their records and all their contacts and what they\u2019ve been doing and what they\u2019ve been talking about,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University and a former senior Royal Air Force officer who served in Iraq, shares the same sentiment.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there had been any explosives, big or small, in those vans, then there is no way on Earth that the police would have released these individuals on bail,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Police have not said whether any explosives were found, with Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor stressing that the men \u201cabsolutely remain under investigation\u201d.<\/p>\n

Fuel thieves or \u2018useful idiots\u2019?<\/h2>\n

So, if not a terror plot, what was it?<\/p>\n

One of the vans bore the logo \u201cFuel 2You\u201d, which BBC Verify found no evidence of being a legitimate company.<\/p>\n

Ashraf said many homes in the area, according to the internet, are not connected to the mains gas network and rely on heating oil stored in tanks in their gardens.<\/p>\n

He said those tanks have become more valuable as fuel prices have soared during the Iran war.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you\u2019ve got several hundred litres in gardens, that\u2019s a bit of a killing for somebody,\u201d he said, stressing that this was \u201can alternative and probably more plausible explanation\u201d rather than a certainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s absolutely nothing else at all, at the moment, suggesting that there is a link to any foreign government,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Phillips argued that the proximity to the base \u201cmay just be a complete fluke\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m absolutely certain there is intelligence that there are people in the UK that would love to attack,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I\u2019m not sure these guys are the ones.\u201d<\/p>\n

But not everyone is convinced.<\/p>\n

Anthony Glees, emeritus professor of security and intelligence studies at the University of Buckingham, said the effort that went into the vans pointed to something planned.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople do steal fuel, and students do do stupid things, but you wouldn\u2019t go to the trouble and expense of taking three white vans to do so,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Instead, he believes the men were \u201cuseful idiots\u201d who had \u201cbeen hired at some expense\u201d by a foreign state, not to carry out an attack but to stage one to \u201cembarrass the British government\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"British
British newspaper front pages reporting the police declaration of a major incident at RAF Fairford airbase [Toby Melville\/Reuters]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u2018Narrative dominance\u2019<\/h2>\n

If early indications suggest it was not a major terrorist plot, why, then, were Washington\u2019s claims so emphatic?<\/p>\n

For Ashraf, the explanation lies in the administration\u2019s handling of the Iran war, which is driven by what he calls \u201cnarrative dominance\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis particular American administration hasn\u2019t bothered with a strategy, a military strategy, or even a political strategy,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat it has worked on is a narrative strategy.\u201d<\/p>\n

On Trump\u2019s claim that the men had been watched for \u201ca long time\u201d, he suspects a mix-up.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat possibly has happened is that President Trump has been briefed about several groups, I would guess, that the Americans are tracking, which is normal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He added that there may have been \u201csome sort of conflation, which now the president has convinced himself is the same people\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cNobody\u2019s going to tell the president he\u2019s got it wrong,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, a longtime ally of Trump, posted on Monday that \u201cFairford proves my point on Iran and the IRGC\u201d, referring to Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.<\/p>\n

He had linked the incident to Iranian agents arriving in small boats, before police confirmed all five men were British nationals from London.<\/p>\n

For Ashraf, whether the claims hold up may matter little to Trump.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if it\u2019s proven that this is basically a criminal act and nothing to do with terrorism, what he\u2019s successfully done, in the minds of a lot of people, and people like Nigel have amplified it, is just reinforced that association that\u2019s been going on for a long time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat is a hit. That is success as far as they\u2019re concerned.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Police
Police officers stand at a checkpoint near RAF Fairford airbase [Alastair Grant\/AP]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A \u2018frightener\u2019?<\/h2>\n

Police have not ruled out foreign involvement.<\/p>\n

Taylor said investigators were \u201cconsidering this from every possible angle\u201d. That included the possibility of \u201cactivity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state\u201d.<\/p>\n

Such plots are not new. MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said in October 2025 that the agency had tracked \u201cmore than 20 potentially lethal Iran-backed plots\u201d in the UK in the space of a year.<\/p>\n

Phillips explained how such recruitment typically works.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey go onto the dark web, and they post, \u2018Would someone like to do a job and make 10,000 pounds?\u2019, as an example,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The person who carries out the job is often \u201cfour or five rungs down the line\u201d, with no direct link to Iran or Russia.<\/p>\n

Glees believes Fairford fits that pattern, and puts Iran \u201cin pole position\u201d, but he argued a real attack would have backfired on Tehran.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there had been an attack on RAF [Fairford], that would have been an attack on British soil, which would have meant Britain would have to be far more heavily involved in the war against Iran,\u201d he said, adding, \u201cIran\u2019s got no interest in that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, he described it as \u201ca frightener\u201d, designed to embarrass the UK and perhaps make Trump feel the British \u201ccouldn\u2019t be counted on\u201d.<\/p>\n

Ashraf is sceptical Tehran would take the risk at all.<\/p>\n

He said Iran\u2019s messaging has centred on the war being unpopular, even in the US, and that any plot endangering British or American civilians would undermine it.<\/p>\n

If Iran had wanted to attack Fairford, he said, it probably would have assembled \u201ca slightly more capable team\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n


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When a woman driving home to her Gloucestershire village in England in the early hours of Sunday morning found her driveway blocked by three white vans, she immediately called the police. The call triggered a whirlwind of dramatic events; within 15 minutes, armed officers had swooped on the scene, and a major incident was declared…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_2277560469115098_106292521332774":"","twitter_aToxNzczMzI3Njk4OTg4ODUxMjAxOw==_1773327698988851200":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_templately_pack_id":"","_templately_imported_at":"","_templately_source":"","_templately_import_session_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-international-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t