{"id":11809,"date":"2026-10-27T16:46:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T16:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=11809"},"modified":"2026-10-27T16:46:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T16:46:41","slug":"lulas-victory-echoes-across-brics-after-fears-of-a-bolsonaro-win-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=11809","title":{"rendered":"Lula\u2019s victory echoes across BRICS after fears of a Bolsonaro win | Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"
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When Brazil\u2019s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva scored his surprise election victory on Sunday, winning an unprecedented fourth term in office, his supporters were euphoric.<\/p>\n

The joy they felt over Lula\u2019s victory<\/a> has echoed across large parts of the Global South \u2013 and could restore some hope to the grouping that has sought to give emerging countries a greater stake on the world stage, the BRICS alliance.<\/a><\/p>\n

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At a time when United States President Donald Trump is seeking to reassert US power and has cast BRICS as a threat to US interests, Lula\u2019s victory in Brazil offers the alliance a measure of political reassurance, experts say.<\/p>\n

A win by his rival, Flavio Bolsonaro<\/a>, could have threatened Brazil\u2019s commitment to the bloc, given his links to Trump and calls to reconsider the country\u2019s role in BRICS.<\/p>\n

Instead, Lula\u2019s return gives the grouping one fewer reason to fear a retreat from within \u2013 as it continues to help forge a more multipolar future for a world dominated by the US.<\/p>\n

As Esmat Zaidan, professor of public policy at Qatar\u2019s Hamad Bin Khalifa University, told Al Jazeera, \u201cThe victory of Lula is important to BRICS\u2019 political continuation in the current climate as it seeks to increase the bloc\u2019s role and make it stronger in global governance.\u201d<\/p>\n

A spared fracture<\/h2>\n

It was clear to analysts that Lula\u2019s win would safeguard the continuation of the BRICS alliance, while under Bolsonaro, its future may have floundered.<\/p>\n

Lula himself was one of the architects of the bloc when it was founded nearly two decades ago, and has sought to advance its role on the global stage.<\/p>\n

According to Zaidan, Bolsonaro\u2019s desire to reconsider Brazil\u2019s participation in BRICS and instead pursue closer alignment with Washington would have weakened the bloc\u2019s political cohesion and potentially slowed cooperation on trade and financial reform.<\/p>\n

Bolsonaro had reportedly also promised the US Trade Representative that Brazil\u2019s Pix instant payment system would stay out of non-Western payment schemes, as the US seeks to safeguard global dominance of the dollar, said Imran Khalid, a geostrategic analyst and senior fellow at Foreign Policy in Focus.<\/p>\n

\u201cBRICS makes decisions by consensus, so one unwilling founding member can slow everything down from the inside. That was the real risk, more than Brazil walking out,\u201d Khalid told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

Still, Zaidan cautioned that continuity of the alliance does not amount to total unity within.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe member countries of BRICS have distinctly different economic interests and geopolitical goals,\u201d he said. \u201cTherefore, while Lula\u2019s victory makes it easier for the BRICS bloc to continue working towards a common agenda, his election did not eliminate these distinct differences.\u201d<\/p>\n

Guy Burton, a geopolitical and policy analyst, agreed that the bloc\u2019s differences will remain unchanged with Brazil\u2019s election result.<\/p>\n

\u201cBRICS matters because it represents a large share of the world\u2019s population, economy and trade. But it has never really acted as a political unit. Its members are too different,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bloc now includes Iran and the UAE, which sit on opposite sides of the current war. That tells you how limited its cohesion is,\u201d Burton added.<\/p>\n

More multipolarity, but not a counterweight to Washington<\/h2>\n

The apparent relief in the Global South to Lula\u2019s win reflects a broader concern among many emerging economies about their exposure to decisions made in Washington, \u201cparticularly regarding trade, tariffs and international economic relations,\u201d said Zaidan.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor these countries, the issue is not necessarily opposition to the US. It is about having greater room to make independent decisions and avoiding excessive dependence on any single global power,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Khalid pointed to China and Russia\u2019s support for Lula, with Xi Jinping backing him against outside interference, and the Kremlin praising his work for the BRICS alliance.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost of these countries do not want a fight with the United States; they want the freedom to say no to Washington without being punished for it,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

\u201cA strong Brazil inside BRICS helps protect that freedom.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lula has long advocated for a more multipolar international system, in which emerging economies have a stronger voice when it comes to shaping international rules and institutions, added Zaidan.<\/p>\n

Burton said even countries and regions beyond the Global South are looking to lessen their reliance on\u00a0 Washington, including Europe, which is building its own security against Russia and in support of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo states, whether in the Western camp or not, have accepted that they must pursue their own interests. That means working with whoever they can. We are moving into a genuinely multipolar world,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Still, BRICS\u2019 diversity and its member states\u2019 varied interests have meant it has never been a coherent counterweight to the West, experts said.<\/p>\n

Many in the alliance maintain strong economic and security relationships with the US, said Zaidan.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would see Lula\u2019s victory as strengthening the case for strategic autonomy rather than confrontation with Washington,\u201d said the professor.<\/p>\n

\u201cBRICS is potentially more effective when it expands the choices available to its members, rather than defining itself simply through opposition to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n

Burton agreed, pointing to Brazil\u2019s changing ties with Trump over the years.<\/p>\n

\u201cRussia and China are the obvious US rivals. But India under Modi long had a close relationship with Washington, and with Trump in particular, even if that has weakened<\/a> recently,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBrazil, too, was close to Trump under Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio Bolsonaro\u2019s father, when he was in office.\u201d<\/p>\n

Challenging dollar dependence<\/h2>\n

Among the BRICS\u2019 many ambitions is to promote trade in local currencies rather than the US dollar \u2013 and Lula\u2019s victory could provide the political foundation to build on these efforts, said Zaidan, given that Brazil is one of the largest trading economies in the bloc.<\/p>\n

Khalid said that after the alliance scrapped the idea of a common BRICS currency at its most recent summit<\/a> in New Delhi in September, its ambition for trade in local currencies has become far more viable.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the [BRICS\u2019 New Development Bank] moves towards its goal of 30 percent of lending in member currencies, and Brazil and China settle more trade in reais and yuan as they agreed in 2023, reliance on the dollar falls step by step, without an open confrontation,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n

But Zaidan said that political will alone is not enough.<\/p>\n

\u201cCountries also need reliable payment infrastructure, sufficient currency liquidity, appropriate financial regulations, and businesses willing to use these arrangements,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

For now the dollar reigns supreme in foreign exchange transactions, and there may be no tipping point for another decade or so, Burton said.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, though, Lula\u2019s victory could help BRICS move from political discussions towards more practical financial cooperation, while reducing dollar dependence will be \u201cgradual, uneven and driven as much by economic feasibility as by geopolitical ambition\u201d, said Zaidan.<\/p>\n

How Washington reacts to this is another variable; Trump\u2019s government sits at the contradiction of wanting to remain the world\u2019s superpower, while also retreating to a more protectionist America-first role, said Burton.<\/p>\n

\u201cDevelopments such as Lula\u2019s re-election will only sharpen the pressures already building in the Global North,\u201d said the expert.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

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When Brazil\u2019s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva scored his surprise election victory on Sunday, winning an unprecedented fourth term in office, his supporters were euphoric. The joy they felt over Lula\u2019s victory has echoed across large parts of the Global South \u2013 and could restore some hope to the grouping that has sought to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11810,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_2277560469115098_106292521332774":"","twitter_aToxNzczMzI3Njk4OTg4ODUxMjAxOw==_1773327698988851200":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_templately_pack_id":"","_templately_imported_at":"","_templately_source":"","_templately_import_session_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-international-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t