{"id":114518,"date":"2026-02-07T23:08:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T23:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=114518"},"modified":"2026-02-07T23:08:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T23:08:00","slug":"pollster-mussa-dankwah-reacts-as-baba-jamal-defies-projections-in-ndc-ayawaso-east-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=114518","title":{"rendered":"Pollster Mussa Dankwah reacts as Baba Jamal defies projections in NDC Ayawaso East Primary"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>4 Minute, 43 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>
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Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has reacted to the victory of Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed in the Ayawaso East NDC primary on Saturday, February 7, contrary to earlier projections.<\/p>\n

Baba Jamal, Ghana\u2019s High Commissioner to Nigeria, won with 431 votes to secure 45%, with his closest contender, Hajia Amina Adam, securing 399 votes (41%).<\/p>\n

Mr Dankwah took to social media after the declaration of results by the Electoral Commission (EC), which pronounced Baba Jamal as the winner, offering a detailed post-election analysis comparing the outcome with his firm\u2019s Model 1 pre-primary predictions.<\/p>\n

In a characteristically light-hearted tone, Mr Dankwah admitted that his projections fell short in some areas, stating, \u201cIn the just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East, I was handed a defeat, but I will not issue any statement regardless,\u201d before proceeding to unpack the numbers behind the miss.<\/p>\n

According to Mr Dankwah, Global Info Analytics\u2019 Model 1 operated within a \u00b13 per cent margin of error, and while some candidates\u2019 performances aligned with expectations, others deviated significantly.<\/p>\n

He explained that Muhammed Ramni, who polled about 9 per cent, fell within the projected margin of error, noting that the figure represented a combination of the base estimate and allowable deviation. <\/p>\n

READ ALSO:\u00a0Baba Jamal wins NDC Ayawaso East Primaries<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dr. Azindow and Najib Sani, Mr Dankwah added, also performed largely in line with predictions.<\/p>\n

However, the biggest variances emerged with two leading contenders. <\/p>\n

Hajia Amina, who was projected to secure 50 per cent, recorded 41 per cent, an underperformance of 9 per cent, placing her 6 per cent outside the model\u2019s margin of error. <\/p>\n

On the other hand, Baba Jamal, who was predicted to poll 38 per cent (potentially rising to 41 per cent within the error range), exceeded expectations by securing 45 per cent, placing him 4 per cent above the model\u2019s upper limit.<\/p>\n

Mr Dankwah stopped short of offering a definitive explanation for the discrepancies, instead inviting public interpretation. <\/p>\n

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Candidate Baba Jamal has allegedly been involved in vote-buying, with reports claiming he distributed 32-inch Nanco television sets to delegates ahead of the NDC Ayawaso primaries. pic.twitter.com\/5SdGAcPSo2<\/p>\n

\u2014 THE STATE NEWS (@THESTATENEWSS) February 7, 2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In a closing comment laced with sarcasm and emojis, the pollster quipped, \u201cIt took to defeat science and data,\u201d a statement widely interpreted by observers as tongue-in-cheek rather than a formal allegation, as no evidence was presented to support claims of inducement.<\/p>\n

However, President John Dramani Mahama has ordered the immediate recall of Baba Jamal from his position as Ghana\u2019s High Commissioner to Nigeria, following widespread allegations of vote-buying and bribery in the primary.<\/p>\n

\"Pollster<\/figure>\n

According to the Presidency, while allegations of vote-buying were made against multiple contestants, Baba Jamal was the only serving public officer among those who participated in the primary, making his situation distinct.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe President noted that, while the allegations of vote-buying were made against multiple candidates who contested the primaries, Baba Jamal was the only serving public officer among them,\u201d the statement said.<\/p>\n

\"Pollster<\/figure>\n

President Mahama also acknowledged a public statement by the NDC\u2019s General Secretary released earlier, indicating that the party had commenced its own internal investigations into the allegations arising from the polls.<\/p>\n

The campaign team of Baba Jamal had offered 32-inch televisions to delegates who participated in the primary in the Ayawaso East Constituency.<\/p>\n

The team also distributed boiled eggs to delegates, a move that triggered brief jostling among some voters who attempted to access the food items. <\/p>\n

Speaking to the media during the elections, Baba Jamal confirmed the distribution of the goodies but insisted that the gesture was not intended to influence voting decisions.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo if you give television sets to people, what is wrong with it when you give things to people?\u201d he asked. \u201cIs this the first time I am giving things to people?\u201d<\/p>\n

He explained that his actions were consistent with his long-standing personal practice of supporting people financially and materially, stressing that generosity had always been part of his public life.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose of you who know me know that every Christmas, every occasion, every instance, I have put down GHS 2.5 million in free loans to give free loans to people,\u201d he said. \u201cSo if today people are coming to vote and we are giving them something\u2014what is wrong with that?\u201d<\/p>\n

Baba Jamal argued that the ethical issue was not the act of giving itself, but whether such gifts were allowed to influence voters\u2019 choices.<\/p>\n