{"id":114283,"date":"2026-02-06T02:44:00","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T02:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=114283"},"modified":"2026-02-06T02:44:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T02:44:00","slug":"trumps-one-year-african-growth-act-extension-offers-brief-but-fragile-trade-reprieve-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=114283","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s one-year African Growth act extension offers brief but fragile trade reprieve, analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Washington\u2019s one-year extension of its preferential trade programme for Africa will deliver only a short-lived reprieve for the continent, analysts said, with South Africa\u2019s inclusion remaining tenuous amid strained diplomatic relations.<\/p>\n

U.S. President Donald Trump\u00a0signed a law on Tuesday extending\u00a0the African Growth and Opportunity Act until the end of the year. Enacted in 2000, AGOA offers duty-free and quota-free access to the U.S. market to thousands of products from the 32 eligible African nations.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump\u2019s Liberation Day tariffs effectively negate AGOA,\u201d Brendon Verster, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note. The extension only gives some certainty for existing exporters and Trump has the power to remove nations, Verster said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe extension is better than a termination, but it doesn\u2019t represent a stable long-term solution.\u201d<\/p>\n

AGOA beneficiaries are expected to adhere to eligibility requirements around maintaining market-based economies and good governance as well as eliminating barriers to U.S. investments and trade, with Washington carrying out regular reviews.<\/p>\n

SIMMERING TENSIONS BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND PRETORIA<\/h2>\n

The focus is now shifting to what the move might mean for South Africa, with relations between Pretoria and Washington precarious as political frictions simmer.<\/p>\n

Trump has objected to South Africa\u2019s efforts to\u00a0address racial inequality\u00a0and\u00a0stayed away from events\u00a0organised under Pretoria\u2019s presidency of the G20 last year. U.S. tariffs on South African exports hover at 30%.<\/p>\n

Yet because not all goods are covered by Trump\u2019s tariffs, duty-free trade would still apply in some cases, according to Verster of Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n

For now, not being out is a positive, say analysts.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe believe this is a relief as there were many times in 2025 that we expected AGOA to be done away with, or South Africa to be excluded,\u201d said Gina Schoeman at Citi. \u201cIn fact, we are surprised South Africa has not yet been excluded after warnings from some within the Trump Administration that it should be.\u201d<\/p>\n

AGOA eligibility is determined each year by the U.S. president but Washington can also suspend countries outside the annual decision in out-of-cycle reviews.<\/p>\n

Citi calculates that an exclusion of South Africa would hit the local automotive manufacturing sector, and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector, but in its entirety trim GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis doesn\u2019t mean it doesn\u2019t matter because it would still signal concerns about longer-term US-SA relations,\u201d Schoeman added.<\/p>\n

South Africa\u2019s Trade Minister Parks Tau cautiously welcomed the extension.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe do think it\u2019s important we\u2019ve been included,\u201d said Tau on Wednesday. \u201cIt creates a platform for us to continue to have constructive talks.\u201d<\/p>\n

CAN\u2019T RELY ON THE GOODWILL OF OTHERS<\/h2>\n

The value of U.S. imports from AGOA beneficiaries rose 37% from 2001 to end-2021, a U.N. trade agency study showed. Imports more than doubled after excluding fluctuations in U.S. demand for Angolan and Nigerian petroleum products.<\/p>\n

South Africa, the continent\u2019s most industrialised economy, enjoyed the lion\u2019s share of benefits.<\/p>\n

The U.S. trade agency said it would work with relevant agencies in the coming days to implement any modifications to the U.S. Harmonised Tariff Schedule resulting from the legislation reauthorising AGOA.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, African nations are boosting economic ties beyond the United States. Nigeria entered into trade agreements with the UAE.\u00a0Kenya recently finalised\u00a0a trade deal with China.<\/p>\n

In a statement on Wednesday, Kenya Private Sector Alliance CEO Carole Kariuki said the signing of this act provided the immediate certainty required to maintain investor confidence and protect existing jobs.<\/p>\n

Speaking in Johannesburg at an event, Afreximbank President George Elombi called on African nations to accelerate intracontinental trade under the\u00a0African Continental Free Trade Area\u00a0(AfCFTA).<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fate of our economies and the destiny of African people can no longer be tied to the benevolence of others,\u201d Elombi said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Washington’s one-year extension of its preferential trade programme for Africa will deliver only a short-lived reprieve for the continent, analysts said, with South Africa’s inclusion remaining tenuous amid strained diplomatic relations.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_2277560469115098_106292521332774":"","twitter_aToxNzczMzI3Njk4OTg4ODUxMjAxOw==_1773327698988851200":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1972,9559,10,9,2684],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-114283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa","category-agoa","category-politics","category-popular","category-trump-administration"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=114283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114283\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=114283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=114283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=114283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}