{"id":111681,"date":"2026-01-18T19:56:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T19:56:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=111681"},"modified":"2026-01-18T19:56:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T19:56:14","slug":"bright-simons-ghanas-budget-should-follow-gold-not-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sotnews.agency\/?p=111681","title":{"rendered":"Bright Simons: Ghana\u2019s budget should follow gold, not oil"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n \t<\/i> Read Time:<\/span>2 Minute, 21 Second <\/div>\n\n <\/div>
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1. In the 1970s and 1980s, it became clear that commodities like oil, while a boon for nation\u2019s economy, can quickly become a headache. <\/p>\n

2. The price volatility, exchange rate shocks (including \u201cDutch Disease\u201d), and various problems associated with overdependency on oil led to \u201csplit reporting\u201d in national budgeting and fiscal planning. <\/p>\n

3. When Ghana started producing oil in 2010, it followed in the footsteps of countries like Nigeria in splitting macroeconomic forecasts and measures into \u201coil\u201d and \u201cnon-oil\u201d. <\/p>\n

4. Thus, the Finance Ministry reports \u201coil GDP\u201d and \u201cnon-oil GDP\u201d, \u201coil revenue\u201d and \u201cnon-oil revenue\u201d etc. etc. <\/p>\n

5. I argue that because of the rapid rise and fall of Ghana\u2019s oil industry, this split reporting has become a waste of time. If we must expose commodity risk through the budgeting and fiscal planning process at all, then we should use gold. <\/p>\n

6. Yes, this would imply some reclassification of the national accounts, but it would be more honest. <\/p>\n

7. Perhaps, we should even go forward and start revising some of the structures we set up around the \u201cpetroleum holding funds\u201d, \u201cannual budget funding amount\u201d, and related mechanisms and pivot to gold, including the setup of a special wing of one of the sovereign wealth funds (maybe GIIF) to take in gold windfalls whilst the price rally lasts. <\/p>\n

8. Exhibit one of my evidence stack for these positions is the massive 56% decline in oil revenues in H1 2025. Oil production has been falling by ~7.5% per year since 2019. <\/p>\n

9. Oil contributed less than $150m to corporate tax take and just about $370m to overall revenue of about $8bn in H1 2025 (i.e. ~4.5%). What kind of fiscal anchor is that? <\/p>\n

10. In 2023, Ghana got just $29m from the oil wealth it says it has been investing since 2010 (\u201cHeritage Fund\u201d). In 2024, it went up marginally to $37m. More pitiable were the returns from the Stabilisation Fund at just $8.7m in 2024. <\/p>\n

11. I can understand if Nigeria wants to use oil as the fiscal anchor even though it contributes just about 5% to overall GDP. Oil can provide as much as 65% to government revenues and over 85% of exports. <\/p>\n

12. In Ghana, the situation is starkly different. Gold is on course to hit 70% of exports. Oil, by contrast, dropped below 12% in Q1 2025. <\/p>\n

13. You may say that oil is in a bear phase and gold is in a bull run, but the data shows that the shift is structural. Gold has been increasing as a share of everything since 2019 and oil has been decreasing markedly. <\/p>\n

14. Isn\u2019t it time to start recognising the structural exposure to gold risks, in contrast with the declining importance of oil and gas, and shift the fiscal anchor?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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